- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 4?95¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and multiple weather models project a maximum of 31°C in Lucknow on September 4 under generally cloudy skies with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers, consistent with active monsoon conditions that limit solar heating and cap afternoon temperatures near observed values around 29–30°C midday. This aligns with the market’s 93.5% implied probability for 31°C, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and recent observations showing suppressed highs relative to September climatology. A realistic challenge would require substantially reduced rainfall and clearer skies allowing greater insolation, though current guidance assigns low likelihood to exceeding 32°C.