- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 9?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 9?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 9?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 9?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office forecasts and supporting model runs indicate a maximum of 20°C for London on September 9, with afternoon peaks near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds following Tuesday’s rain clearance. This pattern favors modest diurnal warming typical of early September, as cooler maritime air and limited insolation prevent higher readings, while overnight lows near 11–12°C support the daily high. Market-implied odds align closely with this consensus, assigning over 84% combined probability to 20–21°C, reflecting trader assessment of stable guidance and low likelihood of significant model shifts before resolution. Minor upside risk to 22°C remains if clearer skies develop, but current ensemble agreement keeps that outcome below 5%.