- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 6?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 6?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 6?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 6?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast guidance from models including the Met Office and GFS shows southerly flow and mostly clear skies supporting a daytime maximum in the mid-20s °C for London on September 6, above the 1991–2020 average high of 21.2 °C. Light winds and strong insolation under high pressure favor the upper end of that range, while minor cloud increases or timing shifts in the warmest air could cap readings near 25 °C. Trader consensus at 42 % for 26 °C and 30.5 % for 25 °C reflects this narrow spread in ensemble outputs, with lower probabilities assigned to 27 °C or cooler outcomes pending the final afternoon observations. Updated model runs tonight and early morning will refine the exact peak before resolution.