- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 5?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 5?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 5?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and Met Office guidance, indicate a settled high-pressure regime over southern England on September 5 with light westerly winds, limited cloud cover, and dry conditions, supporting a daytime maximum of 22–23°C in central London. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes, as recent runs show consistent afternoon peaks near 22°C under clear to partly cloudy skies, moderated by the maritime air mass and seasonal solar angles. Earlier unsettled weather has given way to stabilization, though minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps 24°C as a plausible upside. New 12Z and 00Z runs ahead of the weekend will further constrain the exact peak, with official observations from sites like Heathrow or St James's Park determining resolution.