- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 4?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 4?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 4?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models point to a mostly cloudy Friday with light rain or drizzle possible early, moderating temperatures under westerly flow and yielding a daytime high near 21–22°C in London. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes, as traders weigh the latest GFS and regional guidance against historical September averages around 19–20°C. Persistent cloud cover and fresh Atlantic air limit daytime warming potential compared to the warmer, sunnier conditions expected later in the weekend, while any model shift toward clearer skies or stronger southerly flow could push readings toward 23°C. The next updated Met Office briefing and 00Z–12Z model runs tomorrow morning represent the key data releases likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.