- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 2?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 2?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 2?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 2?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 2?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 2?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 21–23 °C (roughly 79 % combined probability), reflecting current short-range forecast consensus for London’s maximum temperature on 2 September 2026. Official guidance from the Met Office currently indicates a daytime high near 22 °C under mostly cloudy skies with a south-westerly airflow. This pattern brings relatively mild maritime air while limiting surface heating through persistent cloud cover and light winds. Ensemble and deterministic model outputs show only modest spread, with most runs keeping the daily peak between 21 °C and 23 °C; a few solutions allow brief breaks of sun that could nudge readings toward 24 °C, while heavier low cloud or light drizzle keeps them at 21 °C or below. Key differentiating factors include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, exact wind strength (stronger south-westerlies enhance mixing and suppress the maximum), and whether any weak frontal features produce measurable precipitation. These elements remain sensitive to small shifts in the latest model runs and observational updates through the evening of 1 September. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent Met Office and high-resolution guidance heavily, producing the narrow distribution seen in the market.