- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 30?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 30?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 30?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 30?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 30?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 30?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official Met Office guidance forecasts a Sunday maximum of 23°C for London under sunny intervals after overnight cloud and showers, aligning with the market's heaviest concentration on 23°C (49%) and 22°C (33.5%). Southwesterly flow advects mild maritime air while moderate winds and variable cloud cover limit surface heating, keeping daytime peaks in the low 20s Celsius—near late-August climatological norms. Model consensus shows only modest disagreement on exact insolation and shower timing, with no signals for stronger warming or cooling that would shift odds toward 24°C or below 22°C. Updated runs and observational trends over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.