- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 29?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 29?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 29?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 29?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 29?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 29?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from the Met Office and other models points to a maximum of 21°C on August 29, 2026, under cloudy skies with widespread rain and showers. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes (21°C at 43.5% and 20°C at 27.5%), reflecting trader confidence in limited daytime heating. Persistent low cloud, moderate-to-heavy precipitation, and southwesterly flow from the Atlantic are suppressing solar insolation and advecting cooler maritime air, preventing temperatures from climbing higher. These conditions stem from an ongoing unsettled pattern across southern England, with showers expected to develop or persist through the day. Seasonal context supports the range: late-August climatological highs average near 20–22°C, and the current setup favors values at or just below that baseline. Hourly model guidance shows afternoon peaks clustered around 19–21°C, with low odds for outliers above 23°C given the rain-cooled boundary layer. Traders appear to be weighting official guidance and ensemble agreement on these thresholds, while the slim probabilities for 22°C+ or sub-19°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of showers. Updated model runs or Met Office briefings ahead of the day will be the key near-term catalysts.