- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 27?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 27?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 27?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 27?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 27?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 27?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest Met Office guidance for London on August 27 points to a daytime maximum near 26°C under unsettled conditions with thundery showers and variable cloud cover, driving the market's tight clustering around 24–26°C. Incoming fronts and convective activity from the southwest are expected to limit solar heating through persistent cloud and rainfall, while southerly flow maintains mild air masses. Model runs show sensitivity to shower timing and intensity, which can suppress peaks by 1–2°C via evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Historical August norms near 22°C provide context, but the current warm, humid setup supports the slight upward bias in trader-implied probabilities for 25°C as the most likely outcome. New high-resolution model updates and Met Office briefings tomorrow morning will be key resolution catalysts.