- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 26?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 26?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 26?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 26?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 26?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 26?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 26?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest Met Office guidance projects a maximum of 26°C in London on August 26 under light showers and mild Atlantic flow, directly supporting the near-even 32% market-implied odds on both 25°C and 26°C. Ensemble model spreads and variable shower timing introduce uncertainty around whether daytime peaks reach or fall just short of that threshold, with 27°C at 18% reflecting a narrower window for stronger insolation. Historical August variability and urban heat-island effects further differentiate these close outcomes, while the low probabilities assigned to 28°C or higher align with the current absence of high-pressure blocking or southerly advection in official guidance. Updated forecast runs over the next 48 hours will refine these temperature ceilings ahead of market resolution.