- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on September 4?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 4?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Karachi's September 4 maximum temperature centers on 31°C and 32°C as the leading outcomes (45% and 43% implied probability), reflecting tight model consensus around typical early-September conditions. Official forecasts from sources including the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Met Office, and numerical models (GFS ensembles) indicate a high near 31°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with southwesterly winds of 15–25 mph, high humidity (60–85%), and minimal precipitation risk. Recent observations show Karachi reaching 33°C on September 3 amid hot, humid weather, but increased cloud cover and marine influence from the Arabian Sea are expected to cap intensification on the 4th. The narrow spread between 31°C and 32°C arises from minor differences in predicted solar insolation and boundary-layer mixing; stronger sea breezes or thicker cloud decks favor the lower end, while clearer intervals support the higher. Historical September averages near 32°C provide context, yet short-term variability keeps both outcomes viable ahead of final observations.