- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 1?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on September 1?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on September 1?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on September 1?55¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts for Karachi on September 1, 2026, center on a daily maximum near 30–31°C, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 31°C (54.5%) and 30°C (30.5%). Multiple models, including WeatherBug (85°F / ~29.4°C high under partly cloudy skies), Meteoprog (+31°C), and ensemble runs from GFS-influenced sources, consistently project this range amid southwest monsoon flow and persistent sea-breeze moderation along the Arabian Sea coast. Key scientific drivers include typical late-August/early-September climatology: strong onshore winds (15–16 mph from the SW) that limit daytime heating, high relative humidity (65–85%), and cloud cover that reduces insolation. Pakistan Meteorological Department seasonal guidance notes above-normal mean temperatures through September, yet short-term guidance shows no sharp warm anomaly or heat-wave setup for the first of the month. Recent observations from Karachi Airport on August 31 (highs near 31°C under hazy, mostly cloudy conditions) reinforce model continuity without significant deviation. The modest probability mass on 32°C (12.2%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud timing or wind strength, while lower outcomes remain unlikely given the established warm baseline and lack of cooling mechanisms such as heavy rain. Traders appear to be pricing the high-resolution forecast consensus directly, with resolution hinging on the official maximum recorded at the primary observing site.