- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 16°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 17°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 18°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 20°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 21°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 22°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 23°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 24°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 25°C on August 29?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 26°C or higher on August 29?59¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from sources including the Jinan Meteorological Bureau and international models (e.g., WeatherBug, Yr, Ventusky) indicate a daytime high of 27–30°C for August 29, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and only a modest chance of light rain. This places the official maximum—typically measured at the primary station—comfortably above 26°C in the large majority of scenarios, aligning with the 77% market-implied probability for that outcome. Key drivers include residual late-summer warmth across the North China Plain, elevated humidity supporting overnight lows near 21–22°C, and limited convective cooling expected during the day. Earlier August heat (briefly reaching 34°C) has moderated following scattered thunderstorms, but steering patterns and surface conditions have not introduced a strong cool-air intrusion that would cap temperatures at or below 25°C. Model consensus shows only minor spread, with most runs clustering in the 28–29°C range. Traders appear to view the risk of sub-26°C readings as low given the current atmospheric setup and the timing near peak diurnal heating. Resolution will depend on the precise official daily maximum reported by Chinese meteorological authorities, which incorporates standardized station data rather than spot readings. Updated short-term guidance closer to evening could refine this further if unexpected showers develop.