This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast model divergence and Jeddah’s typical Red Sea coastal climatology position 38 °C as the market favorite. Historical August daily maxima average near 38 °C, with high humidity and moderate northwesterly winds often moderating peaks. Multiple sources show today’s expected high between 38–39 °C: AccuWeather and BBC guidance point to roughly 38–39 °C under hazy sun, while Met Office runs favor 41 °C under clearer skies. This spread explains the tight clustering around 37–39 °C outcomes and the modest probability assigned to 40 °C or higher. Traders appear to weigh the official monitoring data and ensemble consensus more heavily than outlier model runs, keeping implied odds for extremes low. No major heat-wave signals or unusual atmospheric patterns have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the baseline outlook.