- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 6?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 6?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on September 6?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on September 6?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and Turkish meteorological services point to a sunny day with light winds and a daily maximum near 30°C in Istanbul, consistent with late-summer climatology for early September. Model consensus and current observations—mid-20s°C in the morning rising toward afternoon peaks—support this range, with minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure favoring typical diurnal warming. Market-implied odds align closely, placing highest probability on 30°C while assigning meaningful weight to 31°C or 29°C to account for minor forecast spreads or localized variations. Updated model runs and real-time station data through the afternoon will refine the final recorded high.