- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 4?72¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 4?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional meteorological services indicate a peak temperature near 27°C for Istanbul on September 4, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, moderate northeasterly winds around 15-25 km/h, and stable high pressure suppressing cloud formation or cooling. Historical September averages hover near 23-27°C, with current conditions aligning closely after recent warm anomalies. Low precipitation risk and dew points in the mid-teens support daytime warming without excessive humidity. Trader consensus heavily favors the 26°C outcome at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting tight model agreement and observed hourly trends approaching but not exceeding 27°C, though minor revisions in afternoon observations could shift probabilities toward adjacent bins.