- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 3?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 3?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 3?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and local meteorological services converge on a high of 27–29°C for Istanbul on September 3 under mostly sunny skies, light-to-moderate northeast winds, and negligible precipitation risk. This setup reflects continued high-pressure dominance and the typical early-September transition, with daytime maxima near or slightly above the 27–28°C seasonal average. The market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C (59.5%) alongside 25°C (20.5%) and 27°C (15.5%) likely incorporates modest cooling from persistent northeasterly flow and minor model spread in maximum temperature guidance, while lower probabilities for 28°C+ or sub-25°C reflect limited upside from clearer conditions or downside from any unexpected cloud cover. Official observations and updated model runs expected overnight will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.