- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 2?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 2?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 2?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 2?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models for Istanbul on September 2, 2026, show peak temperatures of 28–29°C under sunny conditions and moderate northeasterly winds, near the early-September climatological average of ~27–28°C. The tight 50.5%/43% split between 26°C and 27°C in the market reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise daily maximum, driven by differences across official stations, urban heat island effects, and minor variations in model runs or observational timing. Clear skies and light-to-moderate winds limit convective mixing or rapid warming, while stable high pressure suppresses cloud cover or precipitation that could otherwise moderate readings. Traders appear to weigh historical precedent and current model consensus heavily, with only slim odds assigned to 28°C or higher given the absence of anomalous heat advection. Updated afternoon observations or final station reports could still shift resolution within the narrow leading range.