- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 1?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 1?67¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model runs and observational data from sources like GFS indicate partly cloudy to sunny conditions over Istanbul on September 1, with northeasterly winds of 10-20 km/h limiting daytime heating and keeping the peak near the early-September climatological average of 27-28°C. Low humidity and negligible precipitation chances support modest warming, but slight variations in cloud cover timing or wind strength across ensembles create a narrow spread that favors a maximum of 26-27°C at official stations. This tight clustering of probabilities at those levels reflects traders weighting real-time model consensus and historical analogs against the inherent uncertainty in precise hourly peaks before official verification.