- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 27?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 27?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 27?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 27?68¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate mostly sunny conditions with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk across Istanbul on August 27, supporting a daily maximum near or slightly above seasonal norms of 27–28°C. Trader positioning around 27°C (67.5% implied probability) and 28°C (26.5%) reflects consensus on limited afternoon heating from current observations showing gradual rises from overnight lows near 23°C, alongside any potential for localized cooling influences or measurement at official stations. The sharp drop in odds for 29°C or higher aligns with model runs projecting stabilization rather than further intensification, while lower outcomes like 26°C remain secondary given the absence of strong frontal systems. Updated short-range guidance and real-time station data will likely refine these market-implied odds through the resolution window.