- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 20?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 20?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 20?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 20?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 20?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current short-term forecasts position 28°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s August 20 high because numerical models show stable high-pressure conditions producing mostly clear skies and moderate solar insolation without strong advection of warmer air masses. Typical mid-August climatology features daytime maxima near 28–30°C, moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara that limit afternoon peaks; recent model runs have converged around this range rather than the higher values occasionally seen under heat-wave setups. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, keeping implied probabilities concentrated between 27°C and 29°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 30°C or below 27°C.