Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or below on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 19?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 19?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 19?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 19?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 19?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 19?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 19?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction model runs, including those referenced by the UK Met Office and BBC, indicate a daily maximum in Istanbul on August 19 most likely between 27–29 °C under typical late-summer Mediterranean high-pressure conditions with moderate northeasterly flow and limited cloud cover. This range aligns with long-term August climatology of 27–29 °C highs and explains why market-implied probabilities concentrate on 27 °C (50.5 %) and 28 °C (31.5 %). Forecasters note modest uncertainty from potential variations in sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus or slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing, though no heatwave signals or major pattern shifts appear in current guidance. Updated model outputs expected overnight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.