Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 18?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 18?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 18?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The narrow spread between 30°C (33%) and 31°C (31.5%) for Istanbul’s peak temperature on August 18 reflects ensemble model uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating under typical late-summer synoptic conditions. Northeasterly meltemi winds, Sea of Marmara sea-surface temperatures near 25–26°C, and variable cloud cover modulate insolation and mixing, while the city’s urban heat island can add 1–2°C locally. Historical August maxima average 28–30°C, with brief excursions to 32–34°C when high pressure strengthens and winds weaken. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will refine the precise timing of any wind shift or humidity increase that separates these two outcomes.