Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 16?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 16?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 16?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent meteorological forecasts from models such as those informing BBC Weather and AccuWeather project a maximum temperature of 26–28°C for Istanbul on August 16, driven by typical late-summer synoptic patterns featuring northeasterly breezes off the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara that moderate daytime heating. These conditions align with climatological averages near 27–28°C while recent runs show slightly cooler outcomes due to increased cloud cover and steady winds reducing peak insolation. Trader consensus, reflected in the 47.5% implied probability for 26°C, emphasizes model agreement on this range ahead of final observational data, with lower odds on 28°C+ highlighting limited intensification potential under current atmospheric stability.