- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on September 5?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on September 5?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 5?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 5?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to a high near 90–92°F for Houston on September 5, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 90–93°F bins. Typical late-summer Gulf moisture and daytime heating support this range, while scattered afternoon thunderstorms—enhanced by lingering moisture from Tropical Storm Edouard’s remnants—increase cloud cover and limit extreme heating. Historical September 5 averages near 91°F provide climatological context, and the current unsettled pattern favors convection over full sunshine. Traders appear to view the consensus model guidance as the dominant signal, with only modest probability assigned to outliers above 94°F or below 90°F should steering winds or timing of storms shift. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs tomorrow will offer the next key data points ahead of market resolution.