- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 83°F or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 29?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 29?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 29?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 29?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 102°F or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service (NWS) Houston/Galveston office and other models points to a daytime high in the mid-to-upper 90s for Houston on August 29, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with only a slight chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. This positions the 96-97°F bin (52.5% market-implied probability) as the leading outcome, followed by 94-95°F (33.5%), because official guidance centers on a high near 95°F with some model runs and private forecasts reaching 97°F amid light winds, high humidity, and strong insolation under high pressure. The modest probability assigned to 98-99°F (13.5%) reflects residual uncertainty in maximum heating if cloud cover stays minimal or dew points support higher heat indices, while bins above 100°F or below 94°F carry very low odds given the tight clustering of guidance around the upper 90s. Late-summer climatology supports this range, as August 29 historically averages a 92°F high with records rarely exceeding 103°F; current conditions show no major pattern shifts that would drive extremes. Traders are effectively pricing the latest NWS point forecast and ensemble agreement, with any last-minute model updates on August 28–29 capable of shifting probabilities within the narrow 94–99°F window before resolution based on official observations.