- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 110°F or higher on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 108-109°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 21?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 106-107°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 21?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 21?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 91°F or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 21?64¢
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 104-105°F on August 21?1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models position 98–99°F as the leading outcome for Houston’s peak temperature on August 21 due to a dominant high-pressure ridge promoting mostly sunny skies and strong daytime heating. Southerly flow sustains dew points in the mid-70s, elevating heat indices near 106°F while limiting cloud cover that could otherwise cap maxima. Late-August climatology supports these values, with typical highs near 95°F occasionally reaching 100°F absent significant rainfall. The market’s 64.5% implied probability on 98–99°F and 24% on 100–101°F reflect trader alignment with current guidance, though sea-breeze timing or minor model shifts could still nudge readings into adjacent bins before official observations finalize.