- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 4?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 4?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 4?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 4?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s September 4 maximum temperature centers on 28–29°C (combined ~56.5% probability), with 27°C and 30°C as secondary possibilities, reflecting forecast uncertainty in an unsettled early-September pattern. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance for September 4 projects a mainly cloudy day with scattered showers and northerly to northwesterly winds of 4–5, occasionally stronger at higher elevations. This yields an expected range of 25–29°C, consistent with model outputs showing daytime peaks near 28–29°C under partial clearing but tempered by cloud cover and brief rain. Recent days (September 1–2) saw highs of 29–30°C amid thunderstorms tied to a broad low-pressure trough and lingering tropical cyclone effects, but steering patterns and increased cloudiness are expected to limit insolation and surface heating on the 4th. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and coverage of showers (which can suppress maxima by 1–2°C via evaporative cooling and reduced solar radiation) versus any breaks allowing brief warming toward 30°C. Northwest flow advects slightly cooler, drier air compared with prior southerly influences, while high humidity (75–95%) supports modest heat indices but does not override the cooling effect of persistent cloud. Historical early-September normals hover near 29–31°C, so the current setup represents a modest downward deviation driven by synoptic moisture. Traders are weighting the most likely outcomes near the forecast midpoint, with lower probabilities on outliers reflecting model spread in precipitation timing and potential last-minute adjustments from updated runs. Resolution will hinge on the official Hong Kong Observatory daily maximum recorded at its reference station.