This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Short-term forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus indicate daytime highs of 31–32°C on August 19 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity typical of the monsoon-influenced summer pattern. These conditions moderate peak temperatures relative to clear-sky potential, with recent runs showing limited diurnal heating due to afternoon convection. Seasonal outlooks note normal-to-above-normal August temperatures against a long-term warming trend, yet near-term rain chances differentiate 31°C versus 32°C scenarios more than extremes. Trader consensus clusters on these two outcomes as model spread and steering influences remain the key variables ahead of final observational data.