This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate daytime highs near 32°C on August 15 amid a broad low-pressure trough favoring showers and high humidity, following the city's record 36.9°C on August 10 driven by Typhoon Dolphin. Seasonal outlooks project normal to above-normal temperatures overall, with urban heat island effects and variable cloud cover creating narrow margins between 31°C and 33°C outcomes. Model consensus shows limited intensification potential due to steering winds and possible rain cooling surfaces, while traders weigh short-term updates on precipitation timing against historical August averages around 31–32°C.