This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 33°C on August 13 under sunny intervals and isolated showers, following the subsidence after Tropical Cyclone Dolphin’s passage earlier in the week. This positioning aligns with midsummer climatology of 31–33°C highs and urban heat-island effects, with model consensus limiting cloud cover and convective inhibition after the August 9 record of 36.9°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 33°C reflects real-time alignment with official guidance and ongoing observations. Afternoon showers or slight steering adjustments could still cap the peak, though clearer conditions would be required to exceed the threshold.