- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on September 4?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 4?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 4?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 4?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 4?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from multiple agencies indicate persistent cloud cover, moderate rain transitioning to thunderstorms, and elevated humidity on September 4 will limit solar insolation and suppress daytime maximum temperatures in Guangzhou, with consensus highs clustered in the mid-to-upper 20s °C. This pattern stems from a regional weather system enhancing moisture advection and reducing surface heating compared to the early-September climatological average near 33 °C. Key variables include exact timing and intensity of precipitation (stronger or earlier rain favors 26–27 °C outcomes), boundary-layer wind speeds modulating mixing, and any model divergence in cloud thickness that could allow brief clearing and push peaks toward 29–30 °C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow forecast envelope amid typical short-range model uncertainty, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside the 24–31 °C range.