- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 1?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 1?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 1?41¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction runs indicate a highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 1 most likely between 30–32 °C. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms, driven by a moist southwesterly flow and weak steering patterns, are expected to limit daytime heating and suppress the daily maximum below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 32–33 °C. Model consensus from sources such as WeatherBug, LUFT, and Yr.no clusters around 30–31 °C, with some spread arising from differences in timing and intensity of precipitation. This uncertainty, combined with the narrow resolution bins of the market, concentrates implied probability on 31 °C and 32 °C as the leading outcomes while assigning lower weight to 33 °C or higher.