- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 31?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 31?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 31?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 31?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 31?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 31?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 31?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover across South China are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 32–34 °C for Guangzhou’s August 31 maximum. Multiple forecast models show highs near 30–32 °C (86–90 °F) under mostly cloudy skies with 70–95 % rain probability, consistent with the season’s elevated precipitation and suppressed insolation. High humidity and light northerly flow further limit afternoon heating compared with the 33 °C climatological average. Differentiation among the tightly bunched 32–34 °C outcomes hinges on the precise timing and coverage of convective cells, which can shave several degrees from peak readings when rain arrives before solar noon or allow brief clearing that pushes temperatures slightly higher. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected tomorrow morning will provide the next key data point for market adjustment.