- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 25?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 25?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 25?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 25?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 25?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover forecast for Guangzhou on August 25 are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 32–33°C, with 33°C narrowly leading at 23.5%. Multiple models show 90%+ precipitation probability and totals exceeding 30 mm, which limits surface heating and caps highs near or below seasonal norms of 33°C. Official guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles converges on daytime maxima of 31–32°C amid thunderstorms, though minor variations in storm timing or intensity could allow brief breaks that push readings to 34°C or hold them at 31°C. Traders weigh these resolution thresholds against the strong consensus for suppressed temperatures under persistent monsoon moisture.