- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 21?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 21?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 21?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 21?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 21?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 21?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 21?2¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources converge on a daytime high of 32–35°C for Guangzhou on August 21, reflecting subtropical monsoon climatology with elevated humidity, weak northeasterly steering flow, and scattered afternoon convection that frequently caps peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 33–35°C stems from this inherent variability in convective timing and intensity, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on whether showers develop before or after peak heating. Historical August baselines near 33°C provide context, but current conditions with ongoing monsoon activity introduce modest downside risk to the upper end of the range. Updated model runs and radar trends ahead of the peak heating window will likely refine these odds.