Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 15?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 15?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 15?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 15?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 15?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 15?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 15?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts for Guangzhou on August 15, 2026, center on daytime highs of 34–35°C under mostly cloudy skies with thunderstorms, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 35°C (36.5%), 36°C (23.5%), and 34°C (19.5%). In Guangzhou’s humid subtropical climate, peak August solar heating is routinely tempered by monsoon moisture that fuels afternoon convection. Persistent high humidity (around 70–80%) and cloud cover limit full insolation, while scattered showers and storms—forecast for the 15th—further moderate surface temperatures. Historical August averages show highs near 33–34°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C only on clearer days. Current model consensus from sources like timeanddate and Trip.com points to 34–35°C as the most probable range, with rain likelihood reducing the chance of extremes above 36°C. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this scientific picture: the tight clustering around 34–36°C captures forecast uncertainty from variable storm timing and intensity. New model runs or local observations from the China Meteorological Administration on August 14 could shift sentiment if clearer skies emerge or if heavier rain develops.