- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 27?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 27?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on August 27?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 27?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 27?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 27?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau position 38–39°C as the most probable peak on August 27, consistent with current market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes (38°C at 43.5%, 39°C at 28.5%). Persistent influence from the subtropical high is sustaining hot, humid conditions across the Sichuan Basin, where topography traps heat and limits ventilation, while remnants of typhoons Zitan and Jianlawei are expected to bring only scattered showers and thunderstorms—primarily in southern districts—potentially moderating extremes but not enough to drop the daily maximum below the upper 30s°C in most areas. Recent observations reinforce this outlook: highs reached 39.9°C on August 25 and are forecast to hit 40°C on the 26th, establishing a strong baseline. Model consensus and agency guidance for the 26–27 period indicate a slight easing to 38–39°C citywide on the 27th (center district 29–38°C), with any rain unlikely to arrive in time or with sufficient coverage to suppress the peak significantly. International guidance aligns closely, projecting around 36–38°C. Traders are thus weighting the official 38–39°C window most heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 37°C or below only if convection strengthens unexpectedly, and minimal odds for 40°C+ given the anticipated modest cooling trend. Updated model runs and the next agency briefing will be key near-term catalysts.