- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on September 7?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 7?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 7?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 7?65¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on September 7?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 7?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and other meteorological sources project a high of 78–79°F for Chicago on September 7, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with light east to northeast winds. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes—78–79°F at 65% implied probability and 80–81°F at 26%—reflecting strong trader consensus around the official guidance. A recent cool-down after early-September heat (highs in the mid-90s through September 4) has shifted the pattern. Easterly flow off Lake Michigan is providing moderation, while high pressure maintains clear conditions and suppresses significant warming. Historical normals for the date center near 79°F, and the current setup shows no strong warm advection or model spread that would favor outliers. Upcoming NWS forecast updates or any late shifts in wind direction or cloud cover remain the main variables that could nudge the realized high into the 80s, though current observations and model consensus keep the market heavily weighted toward the upper 70s.