- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on September 5?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on September 5?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 5?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 5?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 92°F or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a sharp cooldown for Chicago on September 5, with highs expected in the low-to-mid 80s inland and near 80°F closer to the lake after several days of mid-90s readings. The primary driver is a shift to northerly and northeasterly flow, advecting cooler air and allowing lake moderation to limit peak temperatures. Partly cloudy skies and light winds should permit modest daytime heating, but limited moisture and no strong warm advection keep values well below recent levels. Market-implied odds clustering around 82–85°F reflect uncertainty over exact lake-breeze timing, microclimate differences between observation sites, and minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs will refine whether readings settle nearer the lower or upper end of that range.