- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on September 1?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on September 1?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on September 1?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on September 1?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 100°F or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources indicate a high near 90–92°F for Chicago on September 1 under partly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 10–15 mph, and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s that support heat indices near 100–101°F. This places the most likely maximum squarely in the 90–93°F bins that dominate market-implied odds, consistent with the warm, humid air mass persisting from late August without an immediate cool front. Historical September 1 averages near 81°F and a 101°F record from 1953 frame the current setup as well above normal yet below extreme thresholds, while afternoon convection risk introduces modest uncertainty that traders appear to price into the 90–93°F concentration. Updated model runs and real-time observations from O’Hare or Midway will refine resolution as the day progresses.