- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 31?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 31?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 31?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 31?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on August 31?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on August 31?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 100°F or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources point to a high temperature in the upper 80s to around 90°F for Chicago on August 31, 2026, driven by a late-summer heat wave with southwest winds of 10–15 mph and partly cloudy skies after morning clouds. This aligns with the market's leading outcomes clustered at 88–93°F (combined ~88.5% implied probability), reflecting model consensus on modest warming amid high humidity that boosts heat indices into the mid-90s. Recent developments include persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on August 30 that limited daytime heating to the upper 80s, followed by clearer conditions and a warming trend into early September. Historical context shows August 2026 has seen few 90°F days so far, making this brief surge notable but within typical late-season variability. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.