- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 27?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 27?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 27?62¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 27?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 27?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 92°F or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for August 27, 2026, points to a daytime high in the upper 70s to low 80s across the Chicago area, with lake moderation keeping readings near the official observation site (O’Hare/Midway) from reaching the mid-80s. Northwest winds shifting northeast off Lake Michigan will suppress temperatures relative to inland locations, where brief periods of lower-80s readings remain possible but are unlikely to set the daily maximum. Current conditions on the 26th (mid-80s under partly cloudy skies with a slight shower chance) set up a modest cooldown as cooler, drier air advects in behind a weak frontal passage. Forecast consensus from sources including the NWS Chicago office, global models, and local analyses centers on highs of 77–83 °F, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 80–81 °F (61.5 %) and 82–83 °F (26.5 %). The low probability assigned to 84 °F+ reflects the persistent lake breeze and limited insolation expected under increasing afternoon cumulus. Historical late-August averages near 81 °F provide context, but the immediate synoptic pattern favors the lower end of that range. Traders are therefore pricing the most likely outcome near the upper end of official guidance while discounting outliers that would require stronger southerly flow or delayed lake-effect cooling.