- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 25?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 25?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 25?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 25 project a high near 79°F under mostly sunny conditions with light southerly winds, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 78–81°F outcomes. Mild warm advection from the south and daytime insolation under limited cloud cover support this range, while the moderating influence of Lake Michigan and any late-day lake breeze could cap readings near the lower end. Model consensus shows low variability, with only minor differences in timing of partial cloud development or boundary-layer mixing explaining the split between 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins. Historical August averages near 82°F provide context, but current synoptic setup favors slightly cooler realization. Updated NWS guidance and hourly observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.