- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 21?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 21?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 21?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 21?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 21?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 88°F or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance positions an 80–81°F high as the most probable outcome for Chicago on August 21, reflecting partly to mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 5–10 mph, and a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms that will limit daytime heating. These conditions align with current surface observations and short-range forecasts showing modest instability rather than strong insolation. Traders favor the 78–79°F and 82–83°F bins as plausible edge cases if cloud cover thickens earlier or clears more than expected. The setup remains consistent with late-summer climatology, where typical highs near 82°F can shift several degrees based on the timing and coverage of convective activity. Updated model runs and afternoon NWS briefings will provide the next key data points before resolution.