- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 20?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 20?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?59¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 20?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 20?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 20?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 88°F or higher on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs project a high near 77°F for Chicago on August 20, driven by post-frontal onshore flow from Lake Michigan and a cooler air mass following the August 11 derecho. This has shifted surface temperatures 3–5°F below late-August climatological normals of 82°F, with limited daytime heating under mostly sunny skies and a potential lake breeze further capping maxima in the upper 70s. Trader consensus clusters around 78–79°F as the leading outcome because updated short-range forecasts show high confidence in this narrow range, while lower probabilities for 80°F+ reflect only modest model spread or slight warming if winds turn more southerly. No major revisions have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.