- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 67°F or below on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 19?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 19?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 19?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 19?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 19?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 19?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on August 19?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Chicago's August 19 high temperature market centers on near-term forecast guidance from NOAA and regional models, which point to a cool, below-normal pattern with highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with persistent northerly flow and limited solar heating under variable cloud cover, has kept daytime maxima several degrees below the 82°F climatological normal. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, leaving the 78–79°F and 80–81°F bins nearly even as traders weigh small differences in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. With no strong warm advection expected before sunset, probabilities cluster tightly around these two outcomes while lower and higher bins remain marginal.