Highest temperature in Chicago on August 17?
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on August 17?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 17?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 17?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 17?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 17?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 17?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 17?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 17?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 17?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 17?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 92°F or higher on August 17?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent cooler-than-normal conditions and a forecast pattern favoring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s have concentrated trader sentiment on the 78–81°F range for Chicago’s August 17 high. Normal mid-August maxima at Chicago O’Hare sit near 83°F, yet observed highs on August 15 reached only 79°F amid northerly flow and scattered activity. Ensemble guidance and long-range outlooks indicate continued below-average temperatures through August 17–25, with scattered thunderstorms and moderating air masses limiting afternoon heating. Scientific factors supporting these probabilities include reduced insolation from increased cloud cover, advection of cooler Canadian air, and typical late-summer decline in solar angle. Model consensus points to peak readings near or slightly below climatological norms rather than the 85°F+ extremes seen earlier in the month. With resolution based on official NWS observations at O’Hare or Midway, the market-implied distribution (over 83% probability on 78–81°F) reflects traders’ assessment of this near-term cooling trend and limited upside risk from rapid pattern shifts.