Highest temperature in Chicago on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 77°F or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 16?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 16?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 16?63¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 16?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 16?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 16 indicate a high near 83–84°F under partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, aligning closely with the long-term August normal of 82.7°F. These conditions, including moderating lake breezes and potential precipitation, explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 86–87°F and 84–85°F bins. Model consensus from NOAA favors limited afternoon heating rather than significant deviation above seasonal averages, though afternoon clearing could push readings slightly higher within the favored range. Updated guidance on wind patterns and moisture levels remains the key near-term catalyst for any further shifts in market sentiment.