Highest temperature in Chicago on August 15?
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 15?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 15?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate Chicago's August 15 high will likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8°F 1991-2020 climatological normal, driving the 47.5% market-implied probability on the 80-81°F bin. Primary factors include modest warm-air advection tempered by Lake Michigan's cooling effect via potential easterly flow that promotes lake-breeze development, along with variable cloud cover and any showers that limit surface insolation and maximum temperatures. Minor probability splits between the 80-81°F and 82-83°F outcomes hinge on the exact timing of cloud or precipitation trends. Updated NWS point forecasts and morning model runs will refine these near-term probabilities ahead of resolution.